Substance has been evaluating the Chances Social Impact Bond Since its launch in autumn 2020

The Chances programme aims to re-engage young people from complex backgrounds through sport activities, and support them in increasing their school attendance, achieving qualifications, and reducing offending.

Together with increased physical literacy, these outcomes form Chances’ rate-card, for which its 16 delivery partners are being paid. Substance’s evaluation focuses on the ways in which providers deliver and evidence payable outcomes.


The research draws on a variety of methods, such as quantitative statistical analysis of outcome achievement, qualitative interviews and participatory peer researcher approaches, and a range of case studies. These include in-depth engagement with some delivery partners, but also thematic research around blockages in outcome data reporting or the estimation of the Chances programme’s Social Return on Investment.


The Substance evaluation aims to not only understand but also positively inform the process of data collection and outcome claims. This supports the delivery of the Chances programme as a whole and helps delivery partners maximise and evidence their impact.

The Year 3 interim evaluation report will be published soon.

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